The development of accelerated transplant-related coronary artery disease (T-CAD) is the major obstacle to long-term survival of cardiac allografts. We have investigated the role of various demographic and immunologic parameters as prognostic indicators of T-CAD in a population of 274 heart allograft recipients. Our data demonstrate that patients who experience more than 1 episode of acute rejection per year and/or develop antidonor HLA antibodies are at increased risk of developing T-CAD. Using HLA-A2 as a marker for the release of soluble HLA antigens from the donor, we established that recipients displaying circulating donor alloantigens for more than 26 weeks following transplantation are at increased risk of developing T-CAD (P= 0.008). This association suggests that the release of alloantigens from the allograft is indicative of chronic injury and/or that it stimulates chronic rejection via the indirect allorecognition pathway. Our findings indicate that patients at risk of developing T-CAD can be identified by monitoring the release of donor alloantigens and production of antidonor HLA antibodies following transplantation.